Wednesday 31 July 2013

Recent Data and other Reports we’ve been Reading

by Marc Lerner

Several of the big names in the hedge-fund community have recently written letters mentioning their views on China and the impacts its slowing could have on Australia. In his latest letter, Kyle Bass says that Chinese growth “appears to be stumbling dramatically” and that the scale and pace of credit expansion in China over the last 5 years is “truly staggering”, with the rate of credit growth now 3 times total credit system growth the US had at the peak of the bubble in 2006. He discusses the view his fund now holds that a limit has been reached in terms of how much credit expansion in China can now filter through into real economic growth and wealth creation, as the newer debt is being used to maintain balance sheets rather in an environment of slowing growth than into productive new investments. He also says that a significant slowdown in China would have “devastating” impacts on marketplaces leveraged to a continually booming China such as Brazil and Australia.

Hugh Hendry, a well-known Scottish manager who has previously discussed his views on China (similar to Bass’), mentions in his latest letter that his fund has been investing with the view that the Reserve Bank of Australia (along with that of South Korea, another economy heavily leveraged to China) will continue to cut short-term interest rates aggressively, faced with “ rapidly deteriorating domestic consumption and international trade activity”.

In other news relevant to the thesis of a slowing China (and consequently Australia), there have been recent reports of sharply falling rents in mining towns in Western Australia as mining investment slows. In Karratha rents have fallen for seven quarters in a row, falling almost $500 a week, while in Port Hedland and South Hedland, the number of properties available for rent rose 37 percent during the June quarter. At Valor Private Wealth, we think this trend is likely to continue and worsen, although its severity may be reduced if the dollar falls sharply and far enough that Australian manufacturing, agriculture and tourism are able to make a strong rebound, so that those in the mining industry who have heavily geared themselves into properties in WA can continue to pay off their loans as they find jobs in these other industries. If the dollar stays high, it will mean those whose incomes come from the mining boom will have trouble finding work as the mining investment boom unwinds, with potentially negative implications for the banks who have lent to them, and the housing market throughout the rest of the country (through flow-on effects such as reduced lending elsewhere by the banks and negative effects on the rest of the economy of the end of the mining boom).


In contrast to this depressing trend, a new report has found that Google – one of our largest holdings for our clients – now accounts for 25% of all consumer Internet traffic in North America, up from about 6% three years ago. Whilst this report draws on only some Internet Service Providers (ISPs) and thus only represents an estimate of total traffic, the figure is nonetheless very, very impressive. We are very happy to hold our client’s money in growing, global leaders rather than focussing purely on local mining and banking stocks leveraged to an entirely unsustainable, credit-driven fixed asset investment boom in China.

Sunday 28 July 2013

"Be Fearful when others are greedy..."

CBA is hitting all time highs as seen in this article here.

With TV shows like The Block Sky High also hitting all time highs, I am very suspect of rational thought being used in the property and banking sectors. Paying $1.5 million for a three bedroom apartment when there are plenty of apartments just around the corner in Docklands doesn't seem overly rational. The net yield on these prices has to be in the very low single digits. Unless you think that these apartments are going to be $3 million in 10 years, then you are unlikely to enjoy acceptable returns. When you can buy a nice terrace in numerous areas around the corner for a cheaper price, then the limit on the upside is obvious.

A significant slowdown in China which is becoming more likely, leaves those who are leveraged into property, banking and mining exposed. If the Australian dollar falls low enough and fast enough then Australia and its property, banking and mining markets may be ok. Whilst we are expecting significant falls in the dollar, we are uncertain of its trajectory and therefore this is not a bet that we are willing to take and I certainly would not leverage into this slowdown. Unfortunately we are a distinct minority. The majority of Australians are leveraged into this slowdown in property and hold quite large exposures of banks and miners either directly or through their super.

"You only know who has been swimming naked when the tide goes out" (Warren Buffett). It looks as though we are much closer to high tide than low tide.

Anecdotal evidence is weak when used alone, however when attached to empirical evidence, it can be handy addition to your investment arsenal. Over the last month or two, the number of people I know who have been suggesting that now is the best time to invest in the property market is hitting an all time high. Every one of these "property moguls" has vested interests in attempting to mould my investment strategy. They all have one way bets on the property market. A moderate fall in the market combined with rising unemployment would likely completely wipe away most, if not all of their wealth (and probably lead to negative equity). They may be correct, however when you have a greater than zero chance of completely destroying your wealth, I am highly unlikely to get excited about buying anything. The fact that there is significant confidence in highly leveraged property owners makes me far more cautious.

For those that are overexposed, the recent price rises may be a good time to review your portfolios. Sadly most are completely oblivious to what is likely to happen and many are at risk of being significantly poorer over the next few years.

Buying a family home with low leverage is an emotional decision and has nothing to do with investing. To keep a roof over ones head and look after your family is very rational. Buying with higher leverage makes this less rational. Buying an investment property with extreme leverage and losing money on it in the faint hope of capital gains is just dumb!

We will buy very large amounts of property in Australia when yields are much higher than they currently are (at least 50% higher). If this does not happen, we will avoid this sector as we do with any investment that has limited upside and significant downside.

If you believe that the current interest rate settings around the globe are permanent, then property is likely to be a reasonable investment. If interest rates ever rise, then the prices currently being paid are likely to look rather foolish.

Wednesday 24 July 2013

Why we are allergic to bonds at present

Whilst this Bloomberg article was regarding how cheap stocks were, we inverted the view to show how expensive bonds are.

With potential rising US interest rates at some stage over the next few years, stocks are not spectacularly cheap, however bonds are spectacularly overpriced!

Be moderately cautious with stocks and run for the hills with bonds.

Why Google may win the TV war

This new device is likely to disrupt the worlds current TV market:

http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2013/07/24/googles-new-35-chromecast-device-streams-to-tvs/

I really would not want to be owning a free to air or even a non-sports based pay TV station with the online TV revolution that is coming.

I have been testing out the available devices for watching TV online and so far I think that Amazon and Google are leading the race. Apple is not far behind in terms of technology, however they are behind on the content and are more expensive at present.

Whilst we are generally not "technology" investors as trends change faster that you change your underwear, we do keep a very close eye on what is happening for structural changes to entire industries so that we avoid losing money in other sectors. 

Wednesday 10 July 2013

Jim Chanos Interview

As expected, not much changed in this interview from Jim Chanos. China keeps bubbling away and is actually getting worse...

There are some very entertaining articles about whether to invest in Banks or Miners in the media. Is Australia so narrow minded that this is all the choice we have?

The situation in China is deteriorating. When the mainstream media are starting to talk about the problems, you know it is coming to an end.  I think it is wise to avoid owning any more than a small percentage of your wealth in assets that are based on the continued boom in China and Australia's unprecedented prosperity.